Using that first blood % and the likely number of games each hero will play Shadow Demon, Treant Protector, Invoker, Rubick, Enchantress, and Mirana are my top choices. TI 2013 Correct Pick: Nightstalker (1 game played)ĭatdota: This spreadsheet has the number of first bloods by hero since 6.80 and the hero’s first blood %. TI 2012 Correct Pick: Faceless Void (1 game played) TI 2011 Correct Pick: Sniper (1 game played) I’ll go with 16-18 here, but it’s very close. Only five heroes (Necro, PL, Huskar, Pudge, and Ogre Magi) have zero bans. In 424 pro matches on record during 6.81b, only 11 heroes have been picked or banned 5 times or fewer. By multiplying an arbitrary percentage by the size of each group, I got a rough indicator of how many heroes I felt would not be picked or banned: 15.8. I took a list of all the heroes and put them into four groups: will be picked/banned, probably, maybe, and unlikely. The decider for me is that Batrider has a sub-45% win rate since 6.81b, while Doom is at 55% and Lycan is over 60%, including a dominant 30-16 record on the Dire side.ĭatdota: I like the four intervals that cover the 10-21 range as possible choices. All three have been banned in over 60% of pro matches (sort by ban %) in 6.81b only one other hero (Brewmaster) is over 50%. Nahaz: This is certainly down to Lycan, Bat, and Doom. Although we saw more Batrider banned in the EU qualifiers, we’ve subsequently seen games where Batrider is just ignored completely in the draft. Doom and Batrider are also worth considering. Lycan has passed Batrider as the most banned hero in 6.81b and is the most banned in games between two TI4 teams. Feel free to play your hunches!ĭatdota: Lycan. In other words, predicting the hero with the `Highest Average GPM' is, from a statistical standpoint, as or even slightly more difficult than predicting which hero will have the highest GPM in any single game. The hero needs to perform very well (or poorly) in that one game.The hero has some innate skill or play-style that makes him good at that category.Generally you want to pick a hero that plays one and only one game.By looking at the ‘most average’ by tournament (see the spreadsheet) a few patterns emerge. The addition of ‘average’ changes things significantly. In a change-up to prior compendium questions, many of these questions are asking for ‘most average’ rather than the most over the total event or the most in a single game. Predicting single game events is much more difficult than predicting averages or totals across games. As with any statistical approaches, our predictions implicitly assume that what will happen in the 120 Group Phase matches looks about like what has happened in the data. We've compiled the data used to make these predictions in an Excel spreadsheet. We assume that these predictions cover the Group Phase games played on July 9-12 (aka Phase 2). First of all, my apologies to them for the delay in posting this article - I did not predict that the first hurricane of the season would come through during my beach vacation! Noxville provides his 'Top Six Prediction' in an article on 2p.com. 'Hero Specific Predictions' on the first two pages are below. In this edition of Stats Corner, I’ve enlisted help from Martin Decoud, project director at, and Noxville, Dota stats writer for 2p.com, to help you make your Compendium predictions for the TI4 Playoffs.
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